China Punishes Brazil: BRICS Summit Without Xi Jinping

China is only sending Premier Li to the BRICS summit instead of Xi. The rejection is a clear signal to Brazil - due to its rejection of the BRI and Lula's closeness to Modi.

The General Secretary of the CCP and President of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping, will be absent from the BRICS summit in Brazil next week. An alleged time conflict means that Premier Li Qiang will lead the Chinese delegation to Rio de Janeiro. Since coming to power twelve years ago, Xi has never missed a meeting of the group, even during the pandemic. The decision has caused astonishment. Two factors explain it. Brazil rejects the Belt and Road Initiative, China's flagship project for global infrastructure. In addition, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is hosting a state dinner for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which is seen as a provocation in Beijing.

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China loses patience with Brazil

China's frustration with Brazil is palpable. The BRI, Xi's flagship project for global infrastructure, is not going down well in South America's largest economy. While countries such as Russia and South Africa are participating, Brazil remains on the sidelines, as does India. Lula, who has wanted to strengthen relations with Beijing since his return to the presidency in 2023, has met Xi twice in the past year and a half. Nevertheless, Brazil remains skeptical about the BRI, which is seen in Beijing as a lack of reciprocity. Xi Jinping's absence sends a clear message: without concessions, there is no personal presence.

There is also the state dinner for Modi that Lula is hosting after the summit. This event is being celebrated in the Indian media as a sign of close cooperation between Brazil and India. For China, which sees itself as the leader of the BRICS group, this gesture comes across as a provocation. The last BRICS summit in Kazan offered a rare opportunity for Xi and Modi to hold direct talks after four years. The rapprochement between India and China that began there could be stalled by Xi's absence in Rio. Instead, Li Qiang, a loyal follower of Xi, will represent China's interests. His presence will ensure that Beijing remains in the conversation without Xi himself being there.

The decision influences the BRICS group. Brazil expresses annoyance at Xi's absence, which puts a strain on bilateral relations. Lula, who is striving for closer economic cooperation with China, feels left behind. At the same time, Modi's prominent role in Rio strengthens India's position within the group. BRICS is based on consensus, and tensions between the members make cooperation more difficult. Nevertheless, the group remains stable. China, as an economic heavyweight, continues to secure influence through Li Qiang's participation.

Xi Jinping's absence indicates a strategic reorientation. China appears to be shifting its priorities away from symbolic appearances and towards targeted diplomatic signals. The focus is on asserting its own interests, such as the BRI, and less on personal presence at summits. For Brazil and India, this means that they will have to define their positions within the BRICS group more clearly. Lula will try to calm the waters, while Modi could use the opportunity to expand India's influence. Li Qiang's task will be to maintain China's weight without Xi's aura.

Meanwhile, another president has confirmed his attendance, although Putin "has not yet chosen the format of his participation", as TASS put it. Russian President Vladimir Putin will therefore attend the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, whether in person or virtually. Putin wants to use the opportunity to hold bilateral talks with other heads of state. Above all, this is probably a domestic political signal to show that Russia is not as isolated as the West would like us to believe.

BRICS trade losing relevance for China

The decline in trade with the BRICS countries may also partly explain Xi Jinping's refusal to attend the summit in Rio. China's exports to the member states are only growing by 3 percent annually, significantly slower than in Asia, Europe or the USA. Imports from Brazil, India and South Africa are falling by 15 to 21 percent, even from Russia by 9.5 percent. These figures show that the BRICS countries are becoming less economically attractive for China. Nevertheless, China dominates the group with a 70 percent share of collective GDP and is using it to expand its geopolitical influence in the global South and drive forward the Belt and Road Initiative.

Brazil, which sources a third of its imports from China, rejects the BRI, creating tensions with Beijing. India, another heavyweight, is deepening its relations with the West and keeping China at arm's length. New members such as Egypt and Ethiopia are expanding the group's geopolitical reach, but remain economically insignificant.

The decline in trade signals that the BRICS countries do not currently represent high-growth markets for China. Xi's absence underscores that Beijing is shifting its priorities to more economically productive regions, while Li Qiang's participation secures China's influence.

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