Wang Yi Makes It Clear: Russia Must Not Lose The War In Ukraine
China warns against a Russian failure in the Ukraine war - for fear of geopolitical consequences. Wang Yi's statement shows how nervous Beijing is about Europe's course.
With his statement that Russia must not lose the Ukraine war, Wang Yi makes it unmistakably clear how central the outcome of the conflict is for China. Behind the apparent neutrality lies a clear strategic line that reveals China's foreign policy calculations - and presents Europe with new challenges.
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EU-China dialog with a clear message from Beijing
Last week, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who is also head of the Foreign Affairs Office of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and thus de facto China's chief diplomat and architect of Chinese foreign policy, met with top representatives of the European Union in Brussels.
He held talks with the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, the President of the European Council, António Costa, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.
The reason for the meeting was the 13th Strategic Dialogue between the EU and China, a preparatory meeting for the EU-China Summit to be held in Beijing at the end of July.
During a discussion lasting several hours with the new High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, Wang Yi uttered a sentence that provides deep insights into China's strategic view of the global order.
China warns of geopolitical consequences of Russian defeat
According to consistent reports , Wang Yi said that China could not afford for Russia to lose the war in Ukraine, as China feared that the USA would otherwise turn its full attention to the People's Republic.
Wang Yi repeated not only to Kallas, but also to other EU representatives, China's mantra that it is not a party to this war. But the statement that China considers a Russian defeat unacceptable is an admission that China is definitely involved.
China has long been a belligerent in the Ukraine conflict
From the outset, this stance consisted only of fine words. China has been involved in this war since the beginning. Although both sides deny this to this day, the legend persists that Putin not only confirmed the "borderless strategic partnership" during his visit to Xi Jinping 20 days before Russian troops invaded Ukraine, but also received approval for the war from the party secretary.
Either way, this visit marked the reversal of roles: Since then, Russia has only been China's junior partner, which would have been unimaginable in the days of the glorious USSR, even if Mao's self-image would have made this difficult to bear. The war strengthens China's role as a regional power, while Russia has been relegated from a world power to a second-rate regional power behind China.
China is expanding its influence in Central Asia, Russia's traditional backyard, while Russia is having to retreat. In joint alliances such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), China's influence is growing while Russia's importance is declining. In joint maneuvers, Chinese rather than Russian is used as the lingua franca.
China is mercilessly exploiting Russia's weakness: Chinese companies have filled the gaps that Western companies tore when they left Russia after the outbreak of war. The People's Republic is forcing considerable discounts on the purchase of raw materials, and ultimately the question is also being asked ever more loudly in China as to when it will finally reintegrate the territories lost through "unequal treaties". The nationalist wing is even calling for further territories in Siberia to be incorporated into the People's Republic.
But China also supports Russia directly. Initially this was done through secret flights, but now more or less openly with deliveries of "dual-use" goods, i.e. products with civilian and military benefits. But why does a factory need radar components for helicopters if it does not produce civilian helicopters?
China fears US pressure after Russia loses the war
Wang Yi's statement indicates that China considers a Russian defeat to be a realistic outcome of the war. It reveals China's concern about the consequences of a Russian defeat for China. The US would turn its full focus on the rising rival from the East and fight it just as much as Russia.
Russia lost this war the moment it started it. A military victory for Russia remains possible, but Russia has failed in all other respects. The sanctions are strangling its economic power like a garrote. The war directly and indirectly destroyed an entire generation. Many fell, others, often the top performers in society, fled. Mother Russia became a sick, suffering babushka that needs at least a generation to recover.
From the Chinese perspective, a Russian defeat in the Ukraine war would mean that the USA would win a comparison of systems for the second time since the Cold War, this time for good. The idea of a "peaceful coexistence" of two systems would have failed.
China sees systemic conflict escalating to a new level
For thinkers such as Deng Xiaoping - or to use the language of Xi Jinping, who speaks of a "multipolar world order" - peaceful coexistence is only possible if both sides are prepared to recognize each other's spheres of influence and political legitimacy. From Beijing's point of view, a defeat of Russia would mean that the USA would also no longer leave China any room to rise as an equal great power.
China needs Russia as a buffer against the West. In China's geopolitical thinking, Russia fulfills the same role as Tibet, North Korea, Myanmar or, with increasing restrictions, Vietnam. These states keep the USA and the West away from mainland China and prevent encirclement. Russia remains expendable and will be sacrificed in case of doubt. Its task is to keep China's back free from the Eurasian side. China's greatest concern remains the encirclement by the USA.
After all, a defeat for Russia would also be a systemic defeat: the Western democracies would win against an authoritarian system. How should the Chinese leadership explain this to its population? Doesn't the Communist Party always preach that Western democracies are weak?
Wang Yi lectures EU on realpolitik
According to reports, the conversation between Kallas and Wang Yi was less of a discussion and more of a monologue by the Chinese Foreign Minister, who lectured Kallas on realpolitik, which in his eyes, having been in office for less than a year and coming from a small country, probably still seems inexperienced. At first glance, his remark appears to be a gaffe that rarely happens to such an experienced diplomat.
In conjunction with another remark, Wang Yi's statement does not appear to be a sober analysis, but rather a subtle threat to the EU, in particular to Emmanuel Macron and Friedrich Merz.
The official Chinese readout states that Wang Yi told Kaja Kallas that Europe is facing various challenges, but none of them originated in the past, none are currently emerging and none will emanate from China in the future. Europe and China should respect each other, learn from each other, grow together and make new contributions to human civilization.
This sounds conciliatory, but it is a deliberate distortion. China was, is and will remain a central source of economic upheaval that Europe is grappling with. Wang Yi is aware of this. China's leadership is currently trying to stabilize the ailing economy through massive exports of excess capacity. Subsidized industrial goods, dumping prices and a state-controlled oversupply are burdening global markets and directly affecting Europe.
Germany and France, the continent's leading economies, are particularly affected. They are losing competitiveness, both on the global market and in the domestic market. The first China shock in the early 2000s developed gradually. The second, which has been noticeable since the coronavirus pandemic, is open and aggressive. Nevertheless, this reality is largely ignored in Germany. Instead of addressing the structural dependence on China, the deindustrialization is blamed on high energy prices or an allegedly work-shy population. France is now advocating punitive tariffs against China in order to protect its domestic industry.
China threatens escalation in case of EU proximity to USA
Against this backdrop, Wang Yi's statement takes on added significance. Anyone who declares that no challenge to Europe can be traced back to China and at the same time emphasizes that a Russian defeat would be intolerable is formulating a veiled threat. The message is: so far, you have not been deliberately harmed. However, if you continue to side with the US, support Ukraine and regard China as a strategic rival, the People's Republic will openly support Russia and put further pressure on your economies through cheap exports. To put it more cautiously, this means If Europe continues to treat China as an adversary, Beijing will no longer show any interest in exerting a moderating influence on Russia.
As revealing and significant as Wang Yi's statements were, they received little attention in Europe. Only analysts and China watchers took note of them. The South China Morning Post's reporting was largely ignored in Europe and, apart from CNN, hardly any media in the US took up the issue.
Politically, Wang Yi's warning shot also went almost unnoticed. Yet it gives Brussels a clear option for action. If Europe increases the pressure on Russia and supports Kiev more resolutely, it will also hit China's strategic nerve center. There is still time before the EU-China summit in Beijing.
Von der Leyen, Kallas and Costa could use Wang Yi's own words as leverage against China. The message to Beijing would be clear: either you persuade Putin to back down or we tighten the sanctions, supply more weapons and target your dumped exports.
If Beijing believes it can put pressure on Europe with a flood of cheap goods and targeted support for Moscow, it risks exactly what it fears most. In the end, there would be more, not less, American influence in the middle of the Eurasian continent.
In short, those who make economic threats must be sure that the geopolitical response is not stronger than they can bear.