Newsletter: China’s High-Wire Act: Global Gains, Shaky Ground
China plays Iran-Israel, snubs BRICS, yuan slips, grips India, overshadows Russia’s gas. 5 stories on a risky push.
Dear Readers,
China’s walking a tightrope in a world of trade wars and geopolitical storms, chasing influence while dodging pitfalls at home and abroad. This week’s five stories guide you through Beijing’s risky moves—playing the Middle East, snubbing BRICS, and pushing its yuan—while cracks threaten to topple its plans. Let’s step onto the wire.
Generated by AI (DALE-E3)
China tiptoes through the Israel-Iran conflict, securing cheap Iranian oil (1.7M barrels daily) and Red Sea access via Houthi deals, but a strike on Iran’s oil fields could disrupt its 43% Middle East imports. Xi’s vague peace plan lacks traction, exposing China’s weak diplomatic hand.
China Between Iran and Israel: Profit on Thin Ice
China is more of a spectator than an active participant in the Israel-Iran conflict. The conflict is weakening China's global ambitions while it is trying to expand its influence regionally. Trump's intervention in Iran is forcing Beijing to reassess key axioms of its strategy. Energy supply, diplomatic networks and geopolitical maneuvers are coming und…
This diplomatic sidestep extends to BRICS, where Xi skips Brazil’s summit, sending Li Qiang to signal displeasure over Brazil’s Belt and Road rejection and cozy India ties. With BRICS exports up only 3%, China’s focus shifts to bigger markets.
China Punishes Brazil: BRICS Summit Without Xi Jinping
The General Secretary of the CCP and President of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping, will be absent from the BRICS summit in Brazil next week. An alleged time conflict means that Premier Li Qiang will lead the Chinese delegation to Rio de Janeiro. Since coming to power twelve years ago, Xi has never missed a meeting of the group, even during th…
India, too, feels China’s grip. Its “Make in India” dream falters, with 70% of drone and pharma parts from China, despite $26B in incentives. U.S. tariffs and Russia’s energy reliance keep India tethered to Beijing.
Instead of "Make in India": More Dependence on the USA, China and Russia
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the "Make in India" program in 2014, it was associated with a major economic ambition. India was to transform itself from a service-oriented market economy into an independent manufacturing economy. The share of industrial production in gross domestic product was to increase from 15 percent in 2014 to 25 perce…
China’s financial ambitions stumble as the yuan slips to sixth in global payments (2.89% share), with CIPS handling just $24.6T vs. SWIFT’s $1,825T. Russia leans on CIPS for $240B in trade, but 80% still uses SWIFT, exposing China’s limits.
International Payments: Yuan Slips Further Down The Rankings
The yuan has been steadily losing its appeal as a global means of payment since August last year. At that time, 4.74% of global payments were still processed in the Chinese currency. Almost a year later , only 2.89 percent of international settlements are still in Chinese. The yuan plummeted from the fourth most important currency to the sixth most impo…
Russia’s troubles deepen as Mexico snubs its LNG offer, favoring U.S. gas (212M cubic meters daily). Russia’s 45% revenue drop since 2022 shows its desperation, while China’s shadow looms over its shrinking markets.
Gas From Russia Does Not Arrive In Mexico
The fact that gas from Russia is not reaching Mexico is less due to technical hurdles than to the political and economic reality, in which Moscow has long since lost touch.
The landing? China’s chasing global clout, but weak alliances, a slipping yuan, and reliance on rivals like India and Russia reveal a shaky foundation. Can Beijing stay steady on this high wire?
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Until next week, stay informed and take care.